Week 12 brings with it a full 16 games and is bookended by NFC North matchups on Thursday afternoon and Monday night.
Here are the NFL betting odds for each game in Week 12.
|Green Bay at Detroit||-7.5||+295||-370||45.5|
|Washington at Dallas||-10.5||+420||-560||48.5|
|San Francisco at Seattle||+6.5||-295||+240||43.5|
|Miami at NY Jets||+7.5||-375||+310||41.5|
|New England at NY Giants||+3.5||-178||+150||34|
|Pittsburgh at Cincinnati||+1.5||-108||-108||34.5|
|Carolina at Tennessee||-4.0||+164||-196||37|
Thanksgiving opens up with an NFC North rematch between the Packers and Lions. Detroit won the opening game of the series in Week 4 by a score of 34-20.
The Lions fed RB David Montgomery 32 carries, and he turned them into 121 yards and 3 touchdowns. Amon-Ra St. Brown scored but drew season lows in targets (7) and yards (56) due to the game script.
Ultimately, the Packers were out-earned 401-230 in terms of net yards in the matchup and were specifically pummeled on the ground 211 to 27.
Both teams held on to win close games in Week 11, but the spread indicates that the Lions are expected to build on their 37-44-2 all-time Thanksgiving record.
Despite being a divisional game in Week 12, the Commanders and Cowboys haven’t squared off yet. They’ll face off in Week 18 in what could be a decisive game for the Cowboys’ NFC East hopes.
Washington again lost to the Giants in Week 11, completing a costly series sweep as Washington is now 4-7 on the season with two of those losses coming against New York.
Dallas beat the Panthers by 23 points and look to move to 8-3 on Thanksgiving Day. Their all-time Thanksgiving record is 32-22-1.
The total is trending up.
In a scheduling quirk, the 49ers and Seahawks have not yet faced one another (which is pretty common for divisional matchups this week), but they will actually play again quite soon: December 10th in Week 14.
Seattle succumbed to a last-second field goal in Week 11, and they suffered injuries, too. QB Geno Smith bruised his triceps but was able to return in the fourth quarter. RB Kenneth Walker sustained an oblique strain that sidelined him.
The 49ers rolled over the Buccaneers in Week 11. QB Brock Purdy posted a perfect passer rating of 158.3 in the matchup, and Christian McCaffrey started a new touchdown streak with a receiving score.
The spread is moving toward San Francisco.
The NFL’s foray into Black Friday games begins this year in a matchup with the Dolphins standing as road favorites over the Jets.
They haven’t played each other yet and will play again on December 17th in Week 15.
Miami solidified their AFC East lead with a win over the Raiders in Week 11. The Jets lost a third straight game to fall to 4-6. Since a Week 1 win, they have lost three straight games, won three straight, and lost three straight.
The total is falling in this matchup. Jets QB Zach Wilson was replaced by Tim Boyle in Week 11’s loss to the Bills.
The Patriots bring a three-game losing streak into Week 12 for a road game against the Giants, who picked up a win over the Commanders in Week 11.
Giants QB Tommy DeVito completed 18 of 26 passes for 246 yards and 3 touchdowns in a breakout game last week.
The Patriots had a bye week after a Week 10 loss in Germany, and the spread is moving toward the Giants.
The rematch for this game will take place on Saturday, December 23rd in Pittsburgh, meaning there is not first-time matchup to examine from this season yet.
Pittsburgh had been getting by with winning close games, but the variance didn’t go in their favor in Week 11 when the Browns beat them 13-10.
The Bengals, though, had a worse Week 11. They lost QB Joe Burrow for the season, and the over/under is down as a result.
Carolina lost in Week 11 (33-10 to Dallas), and QB Bryce Young struggled again. He generated only 123 passing yards on 29 attempts for a QB rating of 62.9.
The Titans also suffered a blowout loss (34-14) at the hands of the Jaguars. That was their third straight loss after owning a 3-4 record.
Now, this game has a lot of implications for worst record odds and draft pick ordering. The Panthers have -115 odds to finish with the worst record in the NFL. The Titans are +2900.
The first win of CJ Stroud’s career came back in Week 3 over the Jaguars in a road game. Houston won 37-17 while Stroud threw for 280 yards and 2 touchdowns on 30 attempts in that matchup, and Andrew Beck housed a kickoff for a score.
Jacksonville had more first downs (22 to 13) and total yards (404 to 366) but lost the turnover battle 2 to 0.
The top of the AFC South is at stake here. Of note, the Jaguars are 4-0 on the road this season, and the offense really clicked in Week 11 against the Titans.
A Week 18 rematch is scheduled for this series between the Saints and Falcons, so we’ve not yet seen this matchup in the 2023 season.
Both teams are coming off of a bye and find themselves in position for the NFC South crown.
The 5-5 Saints have a +16 point differential, and the Falcons (4-6) are a -28 — but are 3-2 at home and 2-0 in the division.
New Orleans has -150 odds to win the NFC South; Atlanta is second in the division at +210.
The Colts are rested up after a trip to Germany and need to improve their home record. They’re 1-4 at home despite a 5-5 overall record.
Tampa Bay put a little pressure on the 49ers in Week 11 but couldn’t close the gap. QB Baker Mayfield threw for 246 yards and distributed the ball. Eight Buccaneers had at least 10 yards, but nobody had more than 49.
At 4-6, the Bucs are in striking distance of the NFC South crown. Their odds to win the NFC South are +410.
The Rams were able to pick up a 26-9 win over the Cardinals back in Week 6.
Kyren Williams ran 20 times for 158 yards and a touchdown while QB Matthew Stafford had a hyper-efficient game: 9.4 yards per attempt on 24 attempts for 226 total plus a touchdown. Williams is expected to return in Week 12.
Los Angeles out-earned the Cardinals 6.9 to 4.7 on a per-play basis, but now, the Cardinals have Kyler Murray under center.
In his two starts this season, Murray has averaged 231.5 passing yards with poor EPA metrics but a strong success rate. He has also averaged 6.5 rushes and 42.0 yards on the ground with a rushing TD in each matchup.
Cleveland scored a defensive-centric win over the Steelers in QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s second career start.
Thompson-Robinson produced just 165 yards and completed just 55.8% of his 43 attempts for a QB Rating of 54.9 against a tough Pittsburgh defense.
The Broncos won a second consecutive primetime game and bring a four-game win streak and a 5-5 record into Week 12’s matchup with Cleveland.
During this four-game win streak, QB Russell Wilson has averaged just 190.0 yards per game but with plus efficiency from an EPA standpoint once adjusting for opponents faced.
Like with a lot of the divisional matchups, this is a first game for the Chiefs and Raiders. They’ll play again in Week 16.
Las Vegas was competitive against the Dolphins in Week 11 but couldn’t score a win. Their 5-6 record, though, is tied to a 4-1 home record. Over the past three weeks, quarterback Aidan O’Connell has averaged 211.0 yards and 0.7 touchdowns per game with subpar efficiency.
The Chiefs will have a short week after a Super Bowl rematch with the Eagles on Monday Night Football.
Buffalo won’t have an easy time closing the gap on the Dolphins in the AFC East race in Week 12, as they’re road underdogs against the Eagles. The Bills are 1-3 on the road but 3-0 against NFC teams with wins over the Commanders, Giants, and Buccaneers.
Philadelphia will be facing two top-tier defenses out of their bye week after traveling to face the Chiefs on Monday Night Football in Week 11.
The Baltimore Ravens are expected to play the rest of the season without superstar tight end Mark Andrews but avoided a major injury to Lamar Jackson in Week 11’s win over the Bengals on Thursday Night Football.
They enter after a mini bye to face the Chargers as road favorites.
Los Angeles is 4-6 despite a +21 point differential, which makes them one of two four-win teams with a positive point differential. The Chargers’ odds to make the playoffs sit at +360.
A Week 6 win over the Bears kicked off a five-game win streak for the Vikings before a Sunday Night Football loss to the Broncos in Week 11.
They won that early-season matchup against Chicago 19-13. This marked the Vikings’ first game without Justin Jefferson, who injured his hamstring the week prior. He may return as soon as Week 12, but the Vikings’ bye is in Week 13, meaning he could have extra time to rest up if he sits out on Monday Night Football.
Also in that Week 6 game, Bears QB Justin Fields was injured, and Tyson Bagent took over with an instant strip-sack for a touchdown.
Fields returned in Week 11 and ran 18 times for 104 yards in Week 11’s narrow loss to the Lions while also feeding DJ Moore 9 targets (a 40.9% target share) for 96 yards and a touchdown.
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