Jan 15, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; New York Giants linebacker Jaylon Smith (54) reacts after a play against the Minnesota Vikings during the fourth quarter of a wild card game at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
- In the NFL playoff odds, the current betting lines for the Divisional Round are showing the Kansas City Chiefs, a 9-point pick over the Jacksonville Jaguars, with the biggest spread of the four games
- The Jaguars and Chiefs are also carrying the largest total of the Divisional Round games at 52.5 points in the NFL Playoff odds
- The game between the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys is displaying the smallest point spread (49ers -4) and smallest total (46.5 points)
The Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs is usually a week that leans toward home teams and favorites. In the past five years, home teams are 14-6 straight up. Favorites are 11-9 against the spread.
Last year, though, the Divisional Round NFL betting trends were thrown off their axis. Underdogs went 3-1 ATS. Visiting teams were 3-1 SU. It was the first time since 2009 that home teams didn’t carry the day during the second round of the NFL postseason.
Was that a one-off, or should people be viewing that as a developing trend? The people seem uncertain. In the NFL public betting splits, moneyline wagering is backing three of four home teams. However, the public spread splits are divided 50-50 between favorites and underdogs.
Let’s take a look into all of the week’s line movement. First, though, a look at the up-to-the-minute Divisional Round NFL odds.
NFL Playoff Odds Divisional Round
|Over 52.5 (-110)
|Kansas City Chiefs
|Under 52.5 (-110)
|New York Giants
|Over 48 (-110)
|Under 48 (-110)
|Over 49 (-110)
|Under 49 (-110)
|Over 46.5 (-110)
|San Francisco 49ers
|Under 46.5 (-110)
Odds as of January 20 at Caesars Sportsbook. Claim the Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on the NFL this weekend
In the Divisional Round Weekend against the spread picks, home teams are favored in all four games. All four games are showing over/unders that are above 40 points, with one game topping 50 points.
Recent Histories of Bills, Bengals Being Ignored
The recent NFL betting trends of both the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals appear to have been tossed in the trash bin when oddsmakers got down to setting the line for this AFC Divisional Round Game. It certainly figures to be an emotional encounter. When these two teams played in the MNF game during Week 17 in Cincinnati, the contest was halted when Bills DB Damar Hamlin collapsed and went into cardiac arrest on the field.
AFC East champion Buffalo were 3.5-point home favorites over AFC North champion Cincinnati in the NFL Divisional Round opening lines. That line has since lengthened to Bills -5.5 points. To be brutally honest, that line seems to be defying logic.
“Since he (Josh Allen) became the starting quarterback, the Bills, at home, are undefeated (in the playoffs). Away from home, they haven’t won a playoff game.”@HDouglas83 | @jasonfitz |#FitzandHarry pic.twitter.com/z6BwgHA8gK
— ESPN Radio (@ESPNRadio) January 20, 2023
This season, the Bengals are the AFC’s best cover team, going 12-5 ATS. Cincinnati is the NFL’s top cover team as an underdog (2-0 ATS), and as an away underdog (1-0). The Bengals are also an AFC-best 7-1 ATS as a road team this season. They’re also 3-0 ATS in their last three away playoff games.
Buffalo, meanwhile, is 8-8-1 ATS. The Bills are 3-5 ATS both as a home team and a home favorite. Buffalo QB Josh Allen is 3-0 SU at home in the playoffs. But he’s just 1-2 ATS. And in last season’s Divisional Round, Buffalo was also favored against the reigning AFC champions and lost 42-36 to the Kansas City Chiefs.
Bettors’ Memories Stirring Big Total Movement in Divisional Round Odds?
The NFL betting sites are displaying a rapidly rising total in the New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles picks. This tilt between NFC East rivals certainly is the one among the four games with a significant recent sample size from which to draw upon.
And one of those games proved to be an abundant festival of scoring. During Week 14, the Eagles absolutely crushed the Giants 48-22.
Last week in upsetting the Minnesota Vikings during Wild Card Weekend, the Giants went over in a 31-24 road victory. In fact, the total has gone over in six of their last nine games. Philadelphia is 6-3 on the total this season at home. The over was the winning play in eight of the Eagles’ last 12 games.
All of these factors are combining to create the biggest total move of the Divisional Round NFL Playoff odds. The over/under on this game has grown from 45.5 points to 48.5 points.
Dallas-San Francisco Displaying Smallest Divisional Round Spread
This is the ninth time that San Francisco and Dallas have met in the NFL Playoffs. In six of the previous eight clashes, the winning team went on to play in the Super Bowl.
Surprisingly, this Cowboys vs 49ers tilt has been assigned the lowest total of the four Divisional Round games. San Francisco is the 4-point home chalk.
That’s half of what the usual margin for playoff games between these teams generally produces. The average margin of victory in eight Dallas vs San Francisco playoff games is eight points.
Chiefs Getting Biggest Spread in NFL Divisional Playoff Odds
The divisional round plus Patrick Mahomes is money and oddsmakers know it. Setting up the Kansas City Chiefs with the largest spread of the Divisional Round odds as an 9-point home pick over the Jacksonville Jaguars is no surprise.
In the past four Divisional Rounds, KC is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. The Chiefs covered as the 10-point chalk against Houston in 2019. The only time Kansas City failed to cover was in 2020 against Cleveland. Mahomes was injured in that game and Chad Henne took over at QB for a 22-17 win as an 8-point pick.
Defense Expected to Contain in 49ers-Cowboys Game
There’s an interesting contradiction at work in the Cowboys-49ers game. These two teams both rank among the top six scoring offenses in the NFL. As well, they both rate among the top six scoring defenses in the NFL.
Dallas is the #4 scoring offense at 27.5 points per game. That’s one point better than #6 San Francisco (26.5).
Defensively, the 49ers are the stingiest team in the league, allowing just 16.3 ppg. Dallas is #6, permitting 20. 1 ppg.
Oddsmakers appear to be leaning toward the defenses winning the day. The total of 46.5 points is the lowest of any of the four Divisional Round games.
No Surprise – Big Total Going to Kansas City in Divisional Odds
Back from the bye week, the Kansas City Chiefs find themselves with their accustomed 50+ point total assigned to their game. The AFC Divisional round contest between the hometown Chiefs and the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars is drawing the largest total of this week at 52.5 points.
Trevor Lawrence and Patrick Mahomes since Week 11 (including playoffs)
W-L 7-1 7-1
Comp% 66% 67%
TD-INT 16-6 16-5 pic.twitter.com/pfOUSIJrfX
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) January 17, 2023
During Wild Card Weekend, the Jaguars went over in their stunning comeback from a 27-0 deficit to defeat the Los Angeles Chargers 31-30. It was the first time Jacksonville had gone over in four games. But the club is 5-3 on the total though the past eight games.
Kansas City has gone over in three of the past five games. In the playoffs with Mahomes as their QB, the Chiefs are 8-5 on the total and 2-2 in the Divisional Round. But the total is 1-4 in the past five Jaguars-Chiefs games.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.