The NBA regular season is in its final stretch as teams make their final tweaks and adjustments heading into the NBA Playoffs. We do have some notable injuries though and a late-season coaching change that requires a bit more examination.
This week we’ll look at two Eastern Conference teams to find some value on player props. Let’s dive right into this week’s player props betting forecast.
NBA Player Props Betting Forecast
Since Quin Snyder took over as the head coach of the Atlanta Hawks on Feb. 27, the team is 3-4, but the offense has been solid, scoring an average of 120.4 points per game. While it is difficult to come in this late in the season and change the culture or game plan there are some rotational changes Snyder has made.
One of the noticeable differences for Atlanta has been its rebounding rate. Over these seven games, they’ve seen a spike in their Rebound Percentage from 49.2% to 50.1%, bringing them to about league average compared to the bottom 10. The swing has primarily been on the offensive glass, with a jump from 27.6% to 30.1%, which would be the eighth-best mark in the league, per NBA Advanced Stats.
One of the reasons for the jump is the Hawks are crashing the boards more and Clint Capela is seeing a few more minutes per game as the team’s best rebounder. The Hawks have also benefitted from Saddiq Bey’s presence and more minutes from Jalen Johnson. Johnson has played in six straight games while recording four or more rebounds (and at least one assist) in each of them.
One of the biggest losers in the rotation right now has been John Collins. He has touched 30 minutes just once under Snyder (that was their last game against the Boston Celtics, which was the second game of a back-to-back) and he is averaging just 24.6 minutes across these seven games compared to 31 per game prior to Snyder taking over.
Collins had a solid game against Boston; however, his role has been inconsistent. His points and rebounds props are set at 11.5 and 5.5 on Monday, numbers he has exceeded in two and one game respectively under Snyder.
Another loser has been Bogdan Bogdanovic. While he is questionable for Monday due to a back injury he has played 28 minutes or fewer in each of these games under Snyder, which is a sharp decline from his 29.6 minute average prior to Snyder taking over.
This has directly benefitted Bey, though, who has played 27.2 minutes per game. His prop line was set at 13.5 points on Saturday against the Celtics without Bogdanovic; he has exceeded that line in four of his past five games and made at least three 3s in each of those games.
One stylistic change from Atlanta has been their ball movement. They are utilizing more creative sets to unlock Trae Young and Dejounte Murray. It appears that the Hawks are going to run a bit more empty corner pick-and-roll, which should cut down on double teams and clutter on that side of the floor to take advantage of their excellent ball handling.
However, I would not be surprised to see much more corner shooting from Bey as Snyder’s Jazz teams often parked a sharpshooter in the corner to help spread the floor and give the pick-and-roll partners more room to work.
Schedule: Tues. at Trail Blazers | Sat. vs. Nuggets
Jalen Brunson has been dealing with a foot injury that has sidelined him for four of the last five games and caused him to exit Thursday’s game against the Kings at halftime. The team is 4-4 without Brunson on the season and they have scored about four points fewer per game without him.
His impact is significant, and the team’s offense is 8.6 points better per 100 possessions with him on the floor, per Cleaning the Glass. While Immanuel Quickley has filled in admirably without Brunson, the team then needs to go further down the depth chart for meaningful minutes of the bench.
Quickley and Randle have seen the biggest increases in their minutes and offensive burden with Quickley averaging an absurd 41.9 minutes, 22.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 6.5 assists without Brunson compared to 26.6 minutes, 12.4 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.8 assists when playing alongside Brunson. As for Randle, he always plays massive minutes, but his scoring sees an uptick from 24.9 ppg to 28.4 ppg without Brunson.
One player that I’m most interested in though has been Josh Hart. He has been an incredible acquisition for the Knicks and in 379 minutes the Knicks are +21.4 points per 100 possessions — simply mind-numbing numbers there.
While that will be tough to replicate, prior to the trade he was a +9.1 in Portland this season, and +10.5 last season. Hart’s prop lines were just at 10.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists.
In 13 games with the Knicks, he has exceeded the points line five times, the rebounds line seven times and the assist line seven times. However, Hart has now played 32 or more minutes in six straight games and he has seven or more rebounds in all of those games. That rebound prop is one to target especially against his former team the Blazers on Tuesday.
When Brunson does ultimately return, I’d imagine his minutes will be limited to a certain degree; however, every other time he has missed games there really has not been a limit set for him (playing at least 38 minutes in each) and he was up to 19 at halftime against the Kings before departing. He’s averaging 23.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 6.1 assists per game this season, and there may be a buy-low opportunity on him in his first game back.
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