After a successful Monday slate in the 4for4 Discord, we’re presented with another healthy eight-game slate on Tuesday, chock full of MVP candidates, role players stepping into larger roles, and injury implications. My three favorite player props for the slate are outlined below.
Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes and the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process.
Now, let’s put the tools to use and get to today’s top player props.
Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (March 14, 2023)
Darius Garland Over 24.5 Points (-120 at DraftKings)
The absence of Donovan Mitchell is a big one, as it’ll lead to Darius Garland stepping into the alpha role that we saw him in last season, only this time, in a dream matchup.
In nine games without Mitchell this season, Garland has seen his usage rate spike from 26.3% to 30.4%, his shot volume jump from 15.6 attempts per game to 19.3, and his points per game jump from 21.3 to 26.2 points per game. Despite this being a lopsided matchup, the Cavs are also only 5.5-point favorites, given their absences.
This should lead to a full workload for Garland against a Charlotte defense that ranks 21st in defensive rating and sixth in pace, creating an incredibly betting-friendly game environment.
Risk: 1.20 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit.
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