Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers runs out on to the field as he is announced against the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field.
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- The Jets Super Bowl odds have been slashed from +1800 to +1500 after reportedly trading for Aaron Rodgers
- New York’s championship price tag was as long as +4000 in January before the Rodgers rumors started circulating
- See the latest Super Bowl odds following news that this deal could be close to complete
It may not be official yet, but online sportsbooks are already pricing the NFL futures markets like Aaron Rodgers has been traded to the Jets. The Packers have reportedly traded the four-time MVP to New York, setting off their transition to Jordan Love.
As for the Jets, oddsmakers believe they were just a quarterback away from being a true contender. The Jets had their championship price tag slashed upon the reports, vaulting them up near the top of the oddsboard.
2023 Super Bowl Odds
|Kansas City Chiefs||+600|
|San Francisco 49ers||+800|
|New York Jets||+1500|
New York’s Super Bowl odds now sit at +1500. Back in January, they had a 40-1 price tag to lift the Lombardi Trophy, but that number was slashed to +2500 once the Rodgers rumors started circulating last month. Those odds were shortened again to +1800 over the weekend, and even further on Monday once the deal was reportedly completed.
Only six teams have shorter odds to win the Super Bowl than the Jets, and bettors are all in on New York to win it all. Jets Super Bowl bets represent 17% of the Super Bowl handle over at DraftKings Sportsbook. That’s five percent more than any other team. If the Jets land Rodgers it’s obviously a great haul, but it’s worth questioning if he can be the difference maker the Jets need.
Odds as of Mar. 13, 2023, at DraftKings.
Rodgers Could Join Jets Team Loaded With Talent
If the reports prove accurate, Rodgers joins a team with more offensive talent than Green Bay. New York’s top-two playmakers are both entering their sophomore seasons. Garrett Wilson won the offensive rookie of the year in 2022, racking up 83 catches and over 1,100 yards, despite being stuck with some of the league’s worst quarterback play.
Running back Breece Hall meanwhile, was on pace to win the OROY award before suffering a season-ending injury. Hall scored five times and put up nearly 700 yards through the first seven games, and is an explosive receiving weapon out of the backfield. The rest of the receiving corps is promising, with shifty, third-year receiver Elijah Moore, veteran Corey Davis and an experienced tight end room.
Hearing Rodgers to the Jets is done. History about to repeat itself between New York and Green Bay. Time is indeed a flat circle
— trey wingo (@wingoz) March 13, 2023
Rodgers will need all the talent he can get if his performance last year is any indication. Rodgers averaged just 6.7 yards per attempt, his lowest mark since the 2015 season. He also threw for just 3,695 yards, his lowest total since 2013, despite playing all 17 games.
Rodgers’ 26 TDs were his fewest in four seasons, while his 12 INT were the second most he’s ever thrown. Granted, his weapons in Green Bay were underwhelming, but he looked nothing like the QB that won back-to-back MVP awards in 2020 and 2021.
Jets Conference Championship and Divisional Futures
Fortunately for him, the Jets are stacked on defense. New York boasted the fifth-best defense per DVOA last season, and their play on that side of the ball kept them in the majority of their games.
They have a loaded front four and a fantastic secondary. If Rodgers can give them above-average QB play, the Jets should be a playoff team. New York’s quarterbacks ranked dead last in QBR, completion percentage, passing TD, and off-target throws last season, and the Jets were still in playoff contention up until the final few weeks of the campaign.
If the Jets sign Rodgers, New York is betting they can be a championship contender. However, that will be difficult considering the conference they play in. The AFC is considerably stronger than the NFC, with arguably the three most talented teams standing directly in the Jets’ way of a title run.
— Keyshawn, JWill & Max (@KeyJayandMax) March 9, 2023
The Chiefs, Bills and Bengals all sport shorter Super Bowl and Conference Championship odds. They’re also younger and more skilled at the QB position. Rodgers’ arrival in New York shortened the Jets’ price to win the AFC from +1400 to +900. That’s still more than twice as long as the Bills’ price tag (+425) and nearly three times longer than the Chiefs (+330). Oddsmakers believe New York is still well behind those teams as well as Cincinnati (+500), but that they’re the class of the next tier.
As for the Jets’ NFL Divisional odds, they were slashed from +250 to +225. That’s behind the Bills (+120), but slightly in front of the Dolphins (+360). New York should absolutely challenge for the AFC East title, but Miami seems like a better value. They just addressed a major hole in the secondary by signing Jalen Ramsey, and boast one of the best wide receiving duos in the league. If Tua Tagovailoa can stay on the field, this team’s chances of usurping Buffalo are just as high as New York’s, at a much better price.
Fade Rodgers in the MVP Market
As far as individual awards go, Rodgers’ price in the NFL MVP odds didn’t change. He remains a top-seven contender at +1600, but showed signs last season that he may be on the decline. Rodgers looked less mobile in 2022 and was hesitant to throw the ball downfield. Perhaps that was because he didn’t trust his receivers, but one of the reasons he likely may agree to play for New York is due to their strong run game.
Rodgers can manage this offense by leaning on Hall and exploiting defenses through the play-action game. Gone are the days of 35+ TD for Rodgers, and you simply cannot compete in this market with the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow without putting up video game numbers. Rodgers will be more efficient than he was in 2022, but his ceiling isn’t nearly as high as the contenders in front of him.
As SBD’s resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he’d rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.