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Cheltenham Festival day 1 statistics and trends for Tuesday’s races

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The biggest week of the National Hunt season takes place at Cheltenham as the cream of the crop from either side of the Irish Sea face off over four days of top-class racing.

Tuesday’s feature is the Champion Hurdle and it looks like an open goal for State Man after last year’s winner – and equine freak – Constitution Hill was ruled out through illness.

There is further Grade 1 action courtesy of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, Arkle Novices’ Chase and Mares’ Hurdle featuring last year’s Triumph Hurdle heroine Lossiemouth.

The Ultima Handicap Chase and Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle provide the big-field betting heats for each-way punters and the card concludes with the Grade 2 National Hunt Chase.

If you’re planning to have a punt on the Cheltenham Festival then it might be worth taking a look through the history books at the trends and statistics built up over the years as that data will (hopefully) help you find a winner.

Strapped for time? Don’t worry, we’ve picked out some choice cuts for all seven races on Tuesday, March 12. Cheltenham Festival odds can be found on the Paddy Power website and Paddy Power app, otherwise the key stats are below.

Read More: Cheltenham Festival On TV Today | Cheltenham Festival Free Live Stream | Cheltenham Festival Radio Coverage | Cheltenham Results

Cheltenham Festival Day 1 Trends

Cheltenham 1:30

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

Paddy Power’s betting for the Supreme normally gets it spot on as nine of the last 10 winners could be found in the top three in the market. Labaik (2017) is the only exception and also the only winner since 2014 to be rated lower than 148.

Cheltenham 2:10

Arkle Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

Other than Western Warhorse (2014) and Put The Kettle On (2020), every Arkle winner in the last 10 years has been rated 151 or higher. You also want to look for a horse that has at least two wins over fences as Western Warhorse (2014) and Duc Des Genievres (2019) were the only busters of this trend.

Cheltenham 2:50

Ultima Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)

It is a race dominated by the home team as the last 10 winners were trained in Britain and all of those had at least one previous run at Cheltenham in their career.

Cheltenham 3:30

Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)

Nine of the last 10 winners of the Champion Hurdle headed into the championship contest unbeaten for the campaign.

Cheltenham 4:10

Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

Other than legendary girls Quevega (2014) and Honeysuckle (2023), the Mares’ Hurdle has been won by horses aged between five and seven in the last 10 renewals. It is also worth looking for a mare rated 147 or higher as seven winners since 2014 met this trend.

Cheltenham 4:50

Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap)

You want a horse that has not won a Grade 1-3 hurdle, has never run at Cheltenham and did not run in a handicap or maiden hurdle last time out as the last 10 winners all followed this profile.

Cheltenham 5:30

National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)

Significant changes to the race in 2020 means we have a limited timespan to work with, although the last four winners have been trained in Ireland.

Cheltenham Festival going

It is worth factoring the track conditions into your thinking before placing a bet with Paddy Power for the Cheltenham Festival. The latest report conducted at Cheltenham on Tuesday, March 12 has the official going on the Old Course as SOFT, HEAVY (IN PLACES).

Cheltenham Day 1 Tips

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